Fundamental Analysis

   The key to finding the fair value (also known as intrinsic value) of a stock is by using fundamental analysis. There are four areas to analyze to determine the fair value of a stock. All 4 areas must be considered when calculating fair price to pay for a stock.

  1. Value
  2. Earnings
  3. Debt
  4. Economics


1. Value

Book Value

Book value is the actual accounting net worth of the company. This is probably the easiest analysis to calculate. Book value is calculated by taking the company's total assets and subtracting the company's total liabilities. Another term for book value is equity.

Book Value
BV = Assets - Liabilities

Book Value Per Share

Book value per share is the actual accounting net worth of the company per outstanding share. Book value per share is calculated by taking the company's book value divided by the number of shares outstanding.

Book Value Per Share
BVPS = Book Value / Shares Outstanding

Price to Book Ratio

Price to Book Ratio is the book value per share in relation to the current stock price. Price to book ratio is calculated by taking the company's current stock price divided by the company's book value per share. This ratio will tell you if the current price is too high in relation to the book value, or if it is a fair price. The fair price number for P/B ratio is exactly 1.

Fair Price - P/B Ratio = 1-3 - Good
High Price - P/B Ratio > 3 - Bad
Low Price - P/B Ratio < 1 - Best
Price to Book Ratio
P/B Ratio = Current Stock Price / Book Value Per Share

Consider
- if you get a fair price on a rent house, but you are unable to generate rental earnings, you may have been able to find a better investment. Just because you calculate a fair price when analyzing book value, does not always mean it is a good investment. A good investment needs to generate earnings as well.



2. Earnings

Revenue

Revenue can be found on the income statement and is a total of all sales and operating income.

Revenue
Revenue = Total of all sales

Net Income

Net income is the company's profit. Net income is calculated by subtracting the cost of goods or services and all operating expenses from the revenue.

Net Income
Net Income = Revenue - Cost of Goods - Operating Expenses

Earnings Per Share

Earnings Per Share shows how profitable a company is per share of stock that is outstanding. Earnings per share is calculated by taking the company's net income divided by outstanding shares.

Earnings Per Share
EPS Ratio = Net Income / Outstanding Shares

Price to Earnings

Price to Earnings measures the relationship between the stock price and the earnings per share. The price to earnings ratio will often vary depending on the quality of the company, future potential, company debt, and economics. Price to earnings is calculated by taking the company's stock price divided by the earnings per share.

Fair Price - P/E Ratio = 10-15 - Good
High Price - P/E Ratio > 15 - Bad
Low Price - P/E Ratio < 10 - Best
Price to Earnings
P/E Ratio = Stock Price / Earnings Per Share

Price to Sales

Price to Sales measures the relationship between the stock market cap and the company revenue. Price to sales ratio is determined by taking the company's market cap divided by revenue. The price to sales ratio will often vary depending on the type of the company, products, and economics.

Fair Price - P/S Ratio = 1-5 - Good
High Price - P/S Ratio > 5 - Bad
Low Price - P/S Ratio < 1 - Best
Price to Sales
Market Cap = Share Price * Outstanding Shares
P/S Ratio = Market Cap / Revenue

Return on Equity

Return on equity measures a company's net income in relation to their book value. To calculate return on equity you take a company's net income divided by the book value.

Fair Price - ROE Ratio = 10-15% - Good
High Price - ROE Ratio < 10% - Bad
Low Price - ROE Ratio > 15% - Best
Return on Equity
ROE = Net Income / Book Value

Consider
- a company makes a lot of sales, but the cost of those sales keeps the company from actually making any profit. One result of this could be the amount of debt the company has.



3. Debt

Debt Ratio

Debt Ratio measures a company's total assets against its total liabilities. Debt ratio is calculated by taking the company's total liabilities divided by total assets.

   - Low property, plant, equipment assets
Fair Debt - Debt Ratio < .6 - Good
High Debt - Debt Ratio > 1.0 - Bad
Low Debt - Debt Ratio < .4 - Best

   - High property, plant, equipment assets
Fair Debt - Debt Ratio < 4.0 - Good
High Debt - Debt Ratio > 4.0 - Bad
Low Debt - Debt Ratio < 2.0 - Best
Debt Ratio
Debt Ratio = Total Liabilities / Total Assets

Consider
- some types companies have a high debt that is acceptable.
   Consider borrowing money to buy a house with 20% down; your debt ratio would be 4.0 - This is acceptable to banks as long as you have the credit rating and income to make the payments. If you do not pay the payment, the bank will own your property, which would not necessarily be a loss for the bank, especially if the property has a high value.
- A company with most assets in property, plant, and equipment, would be able to have a much higher debt ratio that is acceptable.
- A company with most assets in accounts receivable, inventory, supplies, intangibles or intellectual property, may need to have a lower debt ratio.


Current Debt Ratio

Current debt ratio measures a company's ability to pay its current liabilities due within 1 year. Current debt ratio is calculated by taking the company's current assets divided by current liabilities. A company's current assets may include cash, accounts receivable, and liquid assets. A company's current liabilities include bills and expenses, dividends payable, and accounts payable.

Fair Current Debt - Current Debt Ratio > 1 or 100% - Good
High Current Debt - Current Debt Ratio < 1 or 100% - Bad
Low Current Debt - Current Debt Ratio > 1.5 or 150% - Best
Current Debt Ratio
Current Debt Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities

Quick Debt Ratio

Quick debt ratio measures a company's ability to pay its bills and expenses with cash or cash equivalents without selling anything or borrowing. Quick debt ratio is calculated by taking the company's current assets - current inventory divided by current liabilities. A company's quick assets may include cash, accounts receivable, and market securities. A company's current liabilities include bills and expenses, dividends payable, and accounts payable.

Fair Quick Ratio - Quick Debt Ratio > 1 or 100% - Good
High Quick Ratio - Quick Debt Ratio < 1 or 100% - Bad
Low Quick Ratio - Quick Debt Ratio > 1.5 or 150% - Best
Quick Debt Ratio
Quick Debt Ratio = (Current Assets - Inventory) / Current Liabilities

Consider
- a company has a high book value, has a high income, but owes a lot of money. If the economics begins to suffer, they may not be able to keep up with their payments and have to sell long term assets to pay bills, or worse, go out of business.



4. Economics

Market Structure

There are 4 types of market structures: perfect competition, monopoly, monopolistic competition, and oligopoly. Considering monopolies are illegal in the US, and perfect competition almost never exists, most companies that you can invest in fall into 2 of these - monopolistic competition, and oligopoly.

Monopolistic Competition is a market structure where there are many companies that sell similar, but slightly different products and services. It is fairly easy to create a new company in this market structure and compete with other companies. These companies can set the prices of their products due to the slightly differentiated products, quality or believed quality of products, location, and marketing strategies. An example of a monopolistic competition would be drugstores, restaurants, toy companies, clothing stores, or supermarkets. These companies are price makers, but only if there is a demand for their products. For example, Apple makes products with perceived high value and great demand, therefore, they set their prices as they want. If the quality of their products were to decrease and demand for their products decreased, they would lose pricing power. An example would be Foot Locker, Stanley Black and Decker, and Energizer.

Monopolistic Competition - Closely related to market sentiment and supply and demand - must have resources to eliminate competition, innovative with products, and/or establish brand loyalty in order to maintain pricing power.
Monopolistic Competition
Many Companies / Few Barriers to Entry / Pricing power is dependent on many factors

Oligopolistic Competition is a market structure where there are few companies and have the most domination and the most pricing power. It is difficult or impossible to create a new company in this market structure and compete with other companies. These companies can set the prices of their products due to the limited competition from other companies. An example of an oligopolistic competition would be an oil company, a pipeline, utility company, a car maker, a bank, an airline, or a weapons manufacturer with US Government classified data. These companies are price makers and have extremely high pricing power. An example would be Enterprise Products Partners pipeline company, Black Hills Energy, Citi Financial, and Exxon Mobil.

Oligopolistic Competition - Few competitors, much pricing power, dominates the market
Oligopolistic Competition
Few Companies / Many Barriers to Entry / Pricing power is high

Conclusion

Choosing a fair price to pay for a stock includes four factors: value, earnings, debt, and economics. Below is an example of a good value stock.

1. Value
P/B: = 1-2 price to book
2. Earnings
P/S: = 1-5 price to sales
P/E: < 15 price to earnings
ROE: > 15% return on equity or book value
3. Debt
Debt Ratio: = .4 - 4.0 | depends on the company, and type of assets
Current Debt Ratio: > 1.2 or 120% | 20% margin of safety
Quick Debt Ratio: > 1.0 or 100%
4. Economics
Strong Pricing Power: Market dominating industry

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